FSPH COVID-19 Projects

Predictive Modeling

Using national and international data on the characteristics of COVID-19, Fairbanks School of Public Health researchers have adapted the existing CDC FluSurge forecasting model for use in Indiana. The researchers have combined Indiana population statistics, by age group, with Indiana hospital data measuring the number of beds, ICU beds, and ventilators that are available –– all to predict how demand for care among COVID-19 patients will impact hospital supply of beds and ventilators.

The researchers have prepared models at the state-level, facility-level, and each of the Indiana State Department of Health (ISDH) preparedness regions. At the state level, the researchers have worked with ISDH and the Family and Social Services Administration. In addition, they have presented to the Governor's Council at the Emergency Operations Center. At the facility level, they have worked with hospital leaders of major health systems and the Indiana Hospital Association to help them prepare for the influx of expected patients. The work they are doing is to inform health system leaders of the gaps in our public health infrastructure that require action to support the health of Hoosiers during this pandemic. The school wishes to see all of the health systems and public health agencies make decisions using the best available data on the evolving crisis to prepare and respond to COVID-19.

Hospital Surge Capacity

COVID-19 is projected to infect a substantial proportion of Hoosiers. Demand for hospital services, including the use of ventilators, is projected to outpace supply in Indiana and beyond. In preparation for this surge, the Fairbanks School of Public Health has developed a brief report that describes approaches that could facilitate the expansion of acute care and intensive care capacity within Indiana. Specifically, we delineate strategies to increase surge capacity at the facility level and at the community level. These strategies can be used by hospital and public health leaders to enhance the ability of providers to meet the need of COVID-19 patients.